Reflections on Badly Missing a Huge Rally These Past Few Days

Ugh, I need to reflect. Really reflect. My entries actually weren’t the problem. The real issue is my exits — I just don’t have enough experience there yet.

Back then, I went long with leverage on BTC and a bunch of altcoins right at the start of the rally (entering on a daily-timeframe bullish setup) — I just didn’t hold on. My reason for exiting at the time was that price had surged, the short-term chart was heavily overbought, and the daily was overbought too — which seemed normal enough. But what I hadn’t experienced before was price staying overbought and just… continuing to surge anyway. BTC almost ran to 80,000.

Going forward… First, my exits (the take-profit kind) need to be locked down to 4 clear conditions:

• Either price breaks below the 21MA and bounces off the MA8 — ideally while overbought or oversold — close the position.
• Or price prints an extremely ugly candle pattern, like a long reversal wick — close the position.
• Or there’s a pullback on a higher timeframe / price gets very close to the EMA200 for the first time in this bull or bear cycle — close the position.
• Or the pattern hits its maximum bullish/bearish target — close the position.

No more getting shaken out by fear!!!

Ha, I didn’t expect my first public post to be a reflection like this instead of the review I’d originally planned, it really feels… missing out on that big a move just doesn’t sit well… I finally get it now — keeping a healthy trading mindset is both the simplest thing in the world, and the hardest.

These are reviews of my own closed trades, for learning purposes only. Not investment advice.