Shorts overcrowded, funding rate negative, closed almost every short — 11 Oct 2026

Ugh, it’s been a year since 10/11. Will it crash today? Well, uh, probably not.

The bulls’ volume is nothing to look at either, but the shorts are way too crowded — the funding rate has gone negative. So I closed almost all my shorts. That’s only one reason. The other is that a few days ago price printed a long lower wick, so the bulls should still have support and can bounce a little. I’ll short again higher up.

The rising channel will most likely still break down — and the moment it bounces, that setup is confirmed. Hmm, anyway, the odds of a move up are higher than the odds of breaking down right now.

BTC’s RSI is stuck at 50. Oh — volume is coming in now too.

ETH has printed a bullish Bat pattern. One last leg up is possible.

And a reflection. I shorted too early the other day — on large-cap coins I should have waited for the second high… If there’s no good price, I can just not short.

And today’s: I’d never seen a rising channel appear after a leg up, so I didn’t go long on everything — fear was part of it too. Ugh. Watch how this one plays out, and next time I’ll have the experience.

Translated by AI from the original. The reasoning is mine; the wording may differ slightly. Where they differ, the original governs.

These are reviews of my own closed trades, for learning purposes only. Not investment advice.