08-17

Written on 17 August 2026. Published unchanged.

Position key: + = long position, − = short position, no symbol = no position currently held.

BTC + BTC dropped 183 points yesterday. Currently sitting just above 63,600. My 10x long is up 3.42%, not much movement, nothing much to say. This boring consolidation has definitely shaken out enough weak hands — something bigger is coming. Will it be a broad rally across the board? The head-and-shoulders bottom has already played out — the only bullish case left now is a bull flag breakout. The risk is obvious: a smaller head-and-shoulders top has already formed, and yesterday it tested the neckline without breaking below it. As for the bulls’ defense… I’ll withhold comment.

ETH + Still grinding, hasn’t broken down. Up 1.62% today, hoping it holds. As long as the double-bottom neckline holds, I’m bullish. Risk: if it breaks down, it’s over — though the odds of that are low.

SNDK No position. Severely overbought — watching to see if I can short at the 0.618 level.

HYPE Bounced back to the 0.382 level, already up more than 100% on this trade. Low probability the trend is over — looking for it to reach the 0.5 level, around 62. Risk: a drop would form a head-and-shoulders top, a textbook bear-market short setup.

XYZ100 + Feels like this move is about done — severe divergence. Closing the position today. Worst-case risk is just missing out on further upside.

SOL + Still consolidating. My entry price is fine either way, so I’m holding. Risk: if BTC crashes, this goes down with it.

GOLD Consolidating near highs. Watching for a test of the 200 EMA to short a move.

ZEC + Big rally, no clear divergence — continuing to hold. Risk: needs to hold the 0.382 level, or upward momentum will fade.

XRP Still a bottomless falling-knife — I won’t buy unless it’s oversold.

Overall, market volatility has clearly dropped — it feels like something big is being pent up. Coins are clearly digesting sell pressure, and once that sell pressure runs out, it’s going to feel great. The broad decline in interest in BTC right now is also one of the signals of a bear-market bottom.

These are reviews of my own closed trades, for learning purposes only. Not investment advice.